Avoca Point Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind
This image illustrates the range of swells directed at Avoca Point over a normal southern hemisphere winter, based on 7266 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Avoca Point. In this particular case the best grid node is 5 km away (3 miles).
The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These happened only 53% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Avoca Point and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Avoca Point, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical southern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Avoca Point run for about 47% of the time.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.