Avalanche Swell Statistics, Junho: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Avalanche that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical June. It is based on 2786 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 10% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal June but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalanche is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Avalanche about 10% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 79% of the time. This is means that we expect 27 days with waves in a typical June, of which 3 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.