Apua Point Swell Statistics, Março: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apua Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March. It is based on 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 2% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal March. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Apua Point is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Apua Point about 2% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 36% of the time. This is means that we expect 12 days with waves in a typical March, of which 1 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.