Acid Drops Swell Statistics, Julho: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Acid Drops that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical July and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 49% of the time, equivalent to 15 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal July but 37% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 37%, equivalent to (11 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Acid Drops is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Acid Drops about 49% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 0% of the time. This is means that we expect 15 days with waves in a typical July, of which 15 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.