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Aileen's Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)
Aileens.surf.statistics.mayWsw.animatedWsw.label.animated

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The figure illustrates the variation of swells directed at Aileen's through a typical May. It is based on 3440 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Aileen's. In this particular case the best grid node is 38 km away (24 miles). The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These happened only 8% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast. The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WSW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Aileen's and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Aileen's, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average May, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Aileen's run for about 92% of the time.

  • Aileens.surf.statistics.januaryWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.februaryWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.marchWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.aprilWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.mayWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.juneWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.julyWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.augustWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.septemberWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.octoberWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.novemberWsw.animated
  • Aileens.surf.statistics.decemberWsw.animated

Also see Aileen's wind stats

Compare Aileen's with another surf break