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Avaliar Discovery Bay


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Discovery Bay Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

This image describes the combination of swells directed at Discovery Bay through an average northern hemisphere spring and is based upon 8052 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Discovery Bay, and at Discovery Bay the best grid node is 43 km away (27 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These were forecast only 55% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Discovery Bay and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Discovery Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Discovery Bay run for about 45% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.