Avon Pier Swell Statistics, All Year: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Avon Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical year and is based upon 28044 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 99 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 0.4% of the time in a typical year, equivalent to just one day but 4% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 4%, equivalent to (15 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Avon Pier is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Avon Pier about 27% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 30% of the time. This is means that we expect 208 days with waves in a typical year, of which 99 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.