Avalon Pier Swell Statistics, Novembro: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Avalon Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November and is based upon 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 21% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal November but 6% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 6%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalon Pier is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Avalon Pier about 21% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 46% of the time. This is means that we expect 20 days with waves in a typical November, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.