Avalanche Swell Statistics, Novembro: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Avalanche that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 30% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 6% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalanche is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Avalanche about 30% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 68% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical November, of which 9 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.