Avalanche Swell Statistics, Fevereiro: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Avalanche that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February and is based upon 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 5% of the time in a typical February, equivalent to just one day but 20% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 20%, equivalent to (6 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalanche is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Avalanche about 34% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 64% of the time. This is means that we expect 27 days with waves in a typical February, of which 10 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.