Anna Bay-Morna Point Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Anna Bay-Morna Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere summer. It is based on 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 31 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal southern hemisphere summer but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Anna Bay-Morna Point is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Anna Bay-Morna Point about 34% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 24% of the time. This is means that we expect 53 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere summer, of which 31 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.