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Avaliar Alfagar


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Alfagar Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram illustrates the range of swells directed at Alfagar through an average northern hemisphere autumn, based on 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Alfagar. In the case of Alfagar, the best grid node is 27 km away (17 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 85% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Alfagar and offshore. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Alfagar, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Alfagar run for about 15% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.