Ajo Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ajo that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere winter and is based upon 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 44% of the time, equivalent to 40 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 5% of the time (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Ajo is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Ajo about 44% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 51% of the time. This is means that we expect 86 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 40 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.