Air Guling Swell Statistics, Dezembro: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Air Guling that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal December. It is based on 2457 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 22% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal December but 20% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 20%, equivalent to (6 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Air Guling is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Air Guling about 22% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 42% of the time. This is means that we expect 19 days with waves in a typical December, of which 7 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.